The Future of Automotive Transportation

In this article, we examine the current reality of automotive transportation to determine what is needed for the future of automobiles.

Where We Are

Safety

According to the U.S National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), US traffic deaths hit its highest yearly total since 2007. For all of 2020, 38,680 people died on U.S roads, which is up 7.2% more than in 2019, despite Americans driving 13% fewer miles as a result of the pandemic (1).

The NHTSA also cited that 94% of crashes are caused by human error. Vehicles, environment and unknown equally constitute the remaining 6%. (2). Most frequently, this was due to recognition error (such as driver’s inattention) and decision error.

There are more cars on the road than ever before that have advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), to support drivers in driving and parking. This includes functions like automatic braking, adaptive cruise control, lane assist, backup cameras and more. Yet, there are more accidents in this past year than in the past 14 years.

More than ever, we are distracted while driving. We become complacent and make decision errors due to a lack of focus and understanding of the entire situation around us. Unfortunately, over the past year, there was also an increase in fatal crashes involving alcohol and drugs (1).

Commuting

In the past year, the covid-19 pandemic has forced many to work from home, which has its own unique benefits and challenges. One of the key benefits cited of working from home is the lack of commute. Employees have been given back time in the day that they used to spend driving, or taking public transportation, to work. In a recent survey of how employees are using the extra time, 35% went to work, 60% to non-leisure activities, such as work around the house or chores and 5% to leisure activities.

Public transportation as we know it has completely changed. Ridership has dropped significantly in nearly every major city around the world from pre-pandemic data as people found ways to work/study from home, travel less, and use different modes of transportation. However, even before the pandemic, public transportation had its shortcomings. Busses in major cities are usually overflowing for 2 hours a day, and running on an inefficient capacity another 14. Additionally, they often run at a loss for the city, do not provide first and last-mile services, and do not run for times during the day, such as overnight.

Electrification

Electric cars have soared in popularity in the recent decade. In fact, in 2010, only 17,000 cars in the world’s roads were electric, by 2019, that number was 7.2 million. (3). An explosion in battery range, charging infrastructure and environmental awareness are some of the key reasons for the rapid growth.

IEA, Global electric car stock, 2010–2019, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-electric-car-stock-2010-2019

However, electric cars still only represent 1 in 250 cars on the road or 2.2% of the global vehicle market share (4). As more and more manufacturers commit to manufacturing a large portion of their fleet as electric vehicles, we expect this trend to continue. The electric vehicle market has in fact been growing at a much faster rate than the rest of the automotive market (3).

There are also nearly half a million electric buses in circulation, leading to noise reduction and cleaner air (3). Electric busses can save on costs, however, organizers still have to consider charging concerns and manage the range of their busses.

Car Ownership

There has been a growing trend towards subscription-based models in the automotive industry, especially among younger consumers. For example, 34% of Generation Y consumers expressed a preference for rental or ridesharing products (5).

Car ownership offers many benefits, such as flexibility to drive whenever, wherever you want, customizing your own car, and more. However, with the average car parked 95% of the time (6), it can be a very expensive convenience. Owners pay for insurance, wear and tear, maintenance expenses, parking (if applicable) and more, whether their car is being driven or simply parked.

Now, more than ever, there are alternative options to owning a car. We can rent a car from a local rental agency, lease a car, use car-sharing platforms, or simply order a ride from an Uber, Lyft or Taxi. All of these methods carry their own strengths and weaknesses. However, younger generations, often in the city, have been taking advantage of car and ridesharing, along with short-term leases.

Where are we heading?

Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared (ACES)

The future of the automotive industry, and the transportation industry more generally, seems to be heading in the direction of autonomy. Self-driving cars are no longer just a thing of science fiction or our imagination, real progress has been made over the last decade in the direction of autonomous vehicles (AVs), however, there is still much room to grow.

Autonomous

As the technology for autonomous vehicles become a reality, we are just beginning to scratch the potential of its use cases. AVs can be used for public transportation, providing first and last mile services, always recalculating routes and providing a safe, consistent ride. They can also be used to drive us to work, school or even a social gathering. They can be used by hospitals, airports, retirement homes, live event managers and more as shuttles. The potential is really limitless. Those who were not able to drive before would now be able to enjoy the luxury of a car ride, wherever they need to go. Think about it — what would you do with your time if you did not have to drive? If you could just sit in the back seat?

Connected

Never before have we been so connected with each other and the rest of the world. Future cars will be no different. They will be able to communicate with one another, creating convoys, making for more efficient and safer roads. They could also connect to a cloud of data points, constantly updating for the most efficient routes based on information from other cars all connected on the same network. Have you ever done a road trip with family, friends or co-workers where you were told to follow someone else? What if your cars just spoke to each other and constantly updated each other with detours, where they are, and where they are going?. One family’s car can push a button to ask for a bathroom break or indicate they would like to stop for a bite to eat, and the whole squadron would be able to know and communicate with each other.

Electric

President Biden stated “the future of the auto industry is electric” and has proposed a $174B investment in electric vehicles (7). Included in this package is $45 billion towards electric school and transport buses. Another prime focus of this package is to set up a national network of charging stations. What has been, and continues to be, one of the biggest obstacles in electric vehicle adoption is concern over battery range and the ability to charge the car. Currently, there are only 41,400 electric vehicle charging stations in the country (7). The U.S is not alone in this challenge, countries across the world are building charging infrastructure and nearly every OEM is involved in transitioning away from internal combustion engines and towards electric vehicles. There is a lot of room to grow in the field of electric vehicles too. Batteries are constantly being improved upon, and not just lithium-ion. Scientists are working on developing solid-state or graphene-based batteries among others. Similarly, charging can be done wirelessly, either inside a garage or maybe even under the road at a stop sign or at a red light. While there are real challenges over owning an electric vehicle today, compare that to 10 years ago, and imagine how much more advanced they will be by 2030.

Shared

Shared mobility comes in the form of shared transportation, such as public transportation, and ridesharing or car sharing. Autonomous, connected and electric vehicles are designed to be shared. For public transportation and shuttles, they can offer a seamless, noise and emission-free experience, with on-demand busses to meet adjusting demand. For car sharing and ride sharing, an autonomous car can pick you up and drop you off at work, pick up another passenger, then come and pick you up at the end of the day.

Shared mobility also comes in the form of collaborative efforts between OEMs. Over the past decade, the number of ACES partnerships have increased by a factor of forty (5). This trend will need to continue for manufacturers to offer consumer and commercial customers safe and connected vehicles. If we can share information and technology, we can make the roads safer, less congested, more efficient and less expensive.

This article was written by Alexander Racher. Alexander is the VP of Marketing at Turing Motor Company. Alexander is passionate about automobiles, emerging technologies, hockey and ancient history. Alexander loves to read, travel and exercise in his free time.

Feel free to leave a comment, whether you agree or disagree, we encourage a collaborative discourse. Thank you.

-Turing Motor Company

References

1. Reuters. “U.S. Traffic Deaths Soar to 38,680 in 2020; Highest Yearly Total since 2007.” US News & World Report, U.S. News & World Report, 2020, www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-06-03/us-traffic-deaths-soar-to-38-680-in-2020-highest-yearly-total-since-2007. Accessed 9 June 2021.
2. ‌Crash Stats: Critical Reasons for Crashes Investigated in the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey. 2015.
3. IEA (2020), Global EV Outlook 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020
4. Coren, Michael J. “Automakers May Overproduce 14 Million Electric Cars by 2030.” Quartz, Quartz, 25 Jan. 2019, qz.com/1533976/automakers-may-overproduce-14-million-electric-cars-by-2030/. Accessed 9 June 2021.
5. Hofstätter, Thomas, et al. “Reimagining the Auto Industry’s Future: It’s Now or Never.” McKinsey & Company, McKinsey & Company, 27 Oct. 2020, www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/reimagining-the-auto-industrys-future-its-now-or-never#. Accessed 9 June 2021.
6. “It’s True: The Typical Car Is Parked 95 Percent of the Time.” Streetsblog USA, 10 Mar. 2016, usa.streetsblog.org/2016/03/10/its-true-the-typical-car-is-parked-95-percent-of-the-time/. Accessed 9 June 2021.
7. Strauss, D. (2021, June 6). Start me up: “car guy” Joe Biden accelerates push to turn America electric. Retrieved June 8, 2021, from the Guardian website: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/06/car-guy-joe-biden-america-electric-vehicles